談談巴菲特的「母牛」和「牛奶」

2011年股東信巴菲特對三種資產的結論：

Our country’s businesses will continue to efficiently deliver goods and services wanted by our citizens. Metaphorically, these commercial “cows” will live for centuries and give ever greater quantities of “milk” to boot. Their value will be determined not by the medium of exchange but rather by their capacity to deliver milk. Proceeds from the sale of the milk will compound for the owners of the cows, just as they did during the 20th century when the Dow increased from 66 to 11,497 (and paid loads of dividends as well). Berkshire’s goal will be to increase its ownership of first-class businesses. Our first choice will be to own them in their entirety – but we will also be owners by way of holding sizable amounts of marketable stocks. I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.
美國的事業將持續有效地，提供國民所想要的產品及服務。以譬喻來說明，這些商業上的「母牛」將存活好幾個世紀，同時還不斷給予大家產量倍增的「牛奶」。這些母牛的價值，是由其牛奶的產能來決定，跟交易的媒介沒什麼關係。而母牛的擁有者，在銷售牛奶的所得上將持續倍增，就像20世紀的道瓊指數由66點，增長到11497點（同時也支付了大量的現金股利）。波克夏的目標，將在於增加這類一流事業的所有權。我們最優先的選擇，是擁有它們全數的股權，但也還是會透過持有相當規模的上市股權，成為其股東。經過一段不算短的期間後，我相信這個領域（生產性事業）的投資，將是前述三種資產中的最大驘家。更重要的是，它是目前看來最安全的標的。

與資本力的概念類比，「母牛」就是IC (Invested Capital)，而「牛奶」就是NOPLAT (Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Tax)。對於母牛的擁有者來說，母牛的市價，有時可能會因為「非產能因素」而大漲，但若此時抱著「不賣出就無法實現獲利（例如前幾年道瓊漲至14000﹣11497的2513點差價」的交易心理，那未來這頭母牛的牛奶產能，就再也不屬於他了。雖然目前道瓊指數為12453，能用14000賣出，好像多了1500點，但卻放棄了未來更多的可能。

根據巴菲特最偏好的第三項資產（生產性事業的投資）的論述，也告訴我們，應該將重心放在有資本（生產）力的事業上。